A startled Ken Adelman throws his support behind Barack Obama

Of all the bizarrely bad things that could have happened to the Republicans today, I think few people saw Ken Adelman's endorsement coming (Adelman, evidently, could hardly believe it himself). Adelman, a lifelong arch-conservative and typical Republican foreign-policy war heavyweight/war hawk (depending on how partisan we want to get here), has been palling around with the likes of Rumsfeld, Cheney and Wolfowitz since he campaigned for Goldwater (although if his effect on the LBJ-Goldwater election is any indication of his political clout, this may in fact be a blessing in disguise for the McCain campaign). Regardless, this is not an endorsement that the right can brush off as merely another "black guy supporting the black guy" or an embittered member of the Bush Administration trying to rectify his legacy. But the kicker, perhaps, is the rationale behind Adelman's support (shockingly enough, does not appear to be due to a wild change of political philosophy after over 40 years as a devoted member of the right-wing faithful). George Packer of the New Yorker reports that, in a series of email correspondences, Adelman cites concerns about McCain's temperment and judgment as the major reasons for his decision to support Obama, despite his broad disagreements with virtually all of Obama's policies. What better way to drive home the Obama campaign's subtle or not-so-subtle tactic of painting McCain as too erratic to lead the nation in crisis.

Despite declarations from some conservative blogs that this endorsement means that the end is nigh for the McCain campaign, I am not nearly so optimistic. Endorsements rarely have much of an impact at all (Oprah's evidently seems to be the exception, but I remain skeptical) and the primary effect of this one may just be to dishearten/enrage the Republican base, or at least create some level of righteous indignation. Moreover, as part of the generation who was weaned on the bitter, bitter defeats (?) of 2000 and 2004, there are few things I believe more strongly in than the Dems ability to blow any election under any circumstances. But here's hoping that Adelman will swing a couple of staunch conservatives in Ohio with reservations about Obama's foreign policy credentials...