Obama's lead in the national polls is shrinking - will the state polls follow? Also, why is no one polling New Mexico?

Much as I am loathe to say it, with Obama ahead by a scant 3% in Rasmussen's national poll today (the closest McCain has come to the Democratic candidate in over a month), the national lead may in fact to be shrinking (although the Zogby poll shows Obama's margin up a point . The state polls, however, seem to paint a much rosier picture (which is perhaps the primary reason why I am not having an epileptic fit at the moment). Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado have all had at least two polls come out in the last two days showing Obama up by 7 points or more. A recent Nevada poll by the Associated Press shows Obama up by an unprecedented 12 points and one by Suffolk shows him up by 10 (although the Rasmussen only has him up by 4). Given the fact that Obama needs only to win one of these states if he holds on to Pennsylvania and New Mexico (which looks fairly likely at this point), although he would be left with a dreaded 269-269 tie (which would be decided in his favor by the Democrat-led House) if he picked up just Nevada, things are not looking so bad. Furthermore, despite the claims that "no really guys, Pennsylvania is SUPER close, I promise" by conservatives and liberals alike, five of the last eight polls released show Obama up by 12 points or more (the other two have him ahead by 9). Rasmussen alone has him up by a modest 7 points (53-47), but notes that almost all of the tightening in the race is due to increased support for McCain rather than declining backing of Obama (and the 53% majority clearly surpasses Mr. Greener's over 50 threshold in order to secure an Obama victory); perhaps all those undecideds are merely breaking for the white guy a bit early. New Hampshire, despite McCain's declaration of love last week, was shown to be favoring Obama to the tune of 18 to 25 percentage points in the two latest polls (margins closer to those in the traditionally liberal bastions of Massachusetts and California than to those in your average swing state).

But the question remains: are the state polls going to follow the national ones? Probably not. Or, at least not in Ohio, Florida or Pennsylvania. The reason state polls tend to be slow on picking up national trends is because they are (typically) taken less frequently than the national ones. As the election nears, the poor voters in OH, FL and PA are probably being asked about their presidential preferences nearly as often as voters on the national level (these should be at most a day behind, since the polls released from those states reflect people who were polled as recently as Monday, versus yesterday for the national polls) . The places where we should be more concerned are the less traditional swing states, such as Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado and Missouri where polls reflect voter preferences from around two days prior to the most recent national polls. And then there might be some real surprises, such as North Dakota and New Mexico, neither of which has data more reflecting opinions more recent than October 15th. North Dakota, I admit, I somewhat understand, who would have thought that a state whose major population trends are an increasing elderly population paired with a high level of out-migration of young people (although there has also been some consolidation of population in cities) which hasn't voted for a Democrat since LBJ trounced Goldwater in 1964 would be in play? The lack of polling in New Mexico, on the other hand, seems a bit bizarre (especially considering that it has a history of being a competitive state in recent years). Although New Mexico has trended toward Obama since every poll since mid-September and all but three since last February, a lot has change in the past two weeks. I'd like to see some polls reassurance that the October 13th Rasmussen poll indicating a 13-point Obama lead is part of a continuing trend.